Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.049822 0.056742 0.064489 0.073846 0.084895 0.097590 0.113372
2025-11-30 0.039677 0.048273 0.058707 0.072444 0.090261 0.112875 0.144217
2025-12-07 0.032454 0.041761 0.053873 0.071084 0.095401 0.129297 0.181531
2025-12-14 0.026332 0.035559 0.048316 0.067724 0.097387 0.142562 0.219801
2025-12-21 0.020759 0.029171 0.041404 0.061126 0.093405 0.146623 0.246803
2025-12-28 0.017803 0.026048 0.038678 0.060318 0.098432 0.167002 0.311041
2026-01-04 0.015714 0.023898 0.037077 0.061052 0.106522 0.196085 0.407820
2026-01-11 0.013828 0.021769 0.035150 0.060876 0.113196 0.225724 0.525457
2026-01-18 0.012251 0.019910 0.033367 0.060626 0.119924 0.259076 0.678269
2026-01-25 0.010722 0.017904 0.030988 0.058727 0.122809 0.285699 0.837506
2026-02-01 0.009318 0.015923 0.028334 0.055713 0.122422 0.304738 0.994511
2026-02-08 0.008441 0.014791 0.027137 0.055604 0.129275 0.348311 1.295393
2026-02-15 0.007649 0.013734 0.025967 0.055436 0.136504 0.399588 1.714939
2026-02-22 0.007054 0.012982 0.025310 0.056383 0.147542 0.472820 2.391771
2026-03-01 0.006507 0.012252 0.024580 0.057012 0.158232 0.555050 3.338882
2026-03-08 0.005901 0.011318 0.023246 0.055756 0.162652 0.617315 4.353697
2026-03-15 0.005189 0.010073 0.021010 0.051524 0.155426 0.622705 4.922312
2026-03-22 0.004821 0.009534 0.020364 0.051697 0.164431 0.719170 6.899332
2026-03-29 0.004553 0.009182 0.020116 0.053016 0.178772 0.863943 10.482648
2026-04-05 0.004269 0.008757 0.019619 0.053463 0.190124 1.009119 15.511470
2026-04-12 0.004006 0.008349 0.019104 0.053746 0.201246 1.173137 23.242566
2026-04-19 0.003707 0.007822 0.018198 0.052503 0.204916 1.290765 32.007950
2026-04-26 0.003397 0.007238 0.017055 0.050183 0.202379 1.357091 40.778311